Mohylnytska A., Panfilova A. Estimation and modeling of the influence of weather and climatic conditions on the yield of winter wheat

UDC 004.942:632.11:633.11

 

Mohylnytska A., 

Panfilova A. 

 

The article shows results of the research carried out on the southern chernozem in the experimental field of the Mykolayiv national agrarian university in 2011-2016. It gives a detailed analysis of the air temperature change, precipitation, relative humidity and their mixed effect on winter wheat productivity for each phase of field crop development, as well as changes in climate fertility and crop efficiency in the modern climate period (2012-2016). The main sample characteristics of the interaction results of wheat varieties are found and the multifactor regression of yield dependence on hydrometeorological factors is formed.

It is determined that favorable weather conditions in 2015 and 2016 during the growing season of winter wheat plants ensured the highest crop yield, regardless of the studied factors. In average for both varieties and feeding options, in 2015 formed 5.53 t/ ha of grain, and in 2016 – 5.59 t / ha, which exceeded their level in 2012, which was the least favorable for the weather. climatic conditions at 2.63 – 2.69 t / ha or 90.7 -92.8%.It is noted that much higher crop yield of winter wheat and less variability depending on weather and climatic conditions provides cultivation of variety Zamozhnist’with the background of mineral fertilizers applying with dosing N 30 P 30 and carrying out extra-root topdressing of crops with Escort-bio fertilizer. Over the research years in this option of experiment the overage crop yield was 4.99 t / ha.

The main sample characteristics of the interaction results of wheat varieties were found to determine the variety esstability of winter wheat in different ways of feeding. The multifactor linear regression was constructed and its correlation analysis was performed to establish the dependence of winter wheat yield on agroclimatic factors.

In all interphase periods of growth and development of plants of the studied varieties of winter wheat, a close connection between grain yield and weather and climatic conditions was revealed.  It should be noted that the closest connection was observed in the interphase period “exit of plants into the tube – earing”, and the weakest connection – in the period of “earing – full maturity of the grain”.  The coefficient of determination for the studied varieties of winter wheat in the interphase period “plant yield in the tube – earing” varies in the range of 0.997 -0.999 depending on the feeding variant.  This indicates that the variation in the yield of winter wheat grain by 99.97 – 99.99% is determined by the variation of weather and climatic conditions.

 

Keywords: yield, agroclimatic conditions; winter wheat; regression; correlation.

 

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